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John McCain in 2004 ?

Ok, so I've done a little bit of thinking ... .it certainly has been a long time since I wrote this article on John McCain in campaign 2004. Essentially somehow getting John McCain to run for President. I must confess that I am a proud Democrat but yet think John McCain would make an excellent President and even an excellent Vice Presidential candidate. So these are some of my thoughts on the McCain candidacy, if you are interested, email me or leave a comment if you can answer these questions or if you can have some questions of your own! Ok, here's my original, John McCain for President 2004

1) How can one convince John McCain to run for President? I imagine there are people trying to convince him, as there have been for many years. How can it be done? Are there enough citizens who would support him? Is there a serious draft movement to draft McCain in 2004?

2) How can McCain get on ballots or any serious McCain movement get him on the ballots? How many signatures would be needed per state to get on the ballots? I just looked up the Massachussetts code and they require 10,000 signatures to get on the ballot. Apparently this petition is due by September 3rd, 2004. How hard would it be to get 10,000 people in a state like MA to sign a petition to put Senator John McCain onto the ballot? Does anyone know the countdowns for the other states, if you do or if you find out, please leave a comment so that the rest of us can know too!

3) I believe there is no requirement that the candidate even has to sign the petition to put his/her name on the ballot. If you can confirm or deny this, please do so. This would avoid the rather difficult issue of having McCain openly campaign or even having him state that he certainly does not want to run. In this sense, a candidate would run for President as in the past, not openly campaigning for the position but having people campaign on his behalf. Is there any interest in starting a PAC or a group to get McCain on the ballot and then of course raise money afterwards to campaign on his behalf since he probably will not campaign on his own.

4) Is this a futile effort since McCain seems to not want to leave his party or run for President again? I don't know the answers to these questions. Perhaps you can help, please do leave your questions, your comments. If there is enough feedback, and enough support, even I cannot define "enough" , however if there is enough support/feedback, I would like to discuss the options which we as citizens have open and by that I mean starting a REAL Draft McCain movement. Also, Senator McCain, if you're reading this, leave me a comment, write me a quick email, or letter if you prefer, and let me know how you feel about some of my questions/concerns. This applies to all of you who just think Senator McCain is a great guy too.

Political Advertising Goes Interactive..

Ladies and Gentlemen, for the past two years, yours truly has been trying to get Democrats to advertise online, but to no avail. I tried, I sent emails, I made phone calls, I left messages, and I called in every favor I had, and yet, no one would take the Internet seriously.

Let it be known, John Kerry just started buying his first ads on the Internet on Yahoo Mail. They are buying 300x350 ad units on Yahoo Mail. The ads are still very dry and there seems to be very little targeting going on. The ad buys are planned and executed by Voter Interactive. I wrote a little piece on the ActiveDemocracy.org website. If you haven't done so already, join our group, help us elect Democrats who want to lower our taxes, save our environment and reform our healthcare system. Read this piece ,

Political Internet Advertising Begins

Announcing the Launch of ActiveDemocracy.org

I'm pleased to announce the launch of ActiveDemocracy.org , a group dedicated to electing candidates to the House, Senate and the Presidency who believe in equal opportunity for all Americans. We are a group of likeminded citizens, who believe in the importance of balanced budgets, protecting our environment, fully funding education, protecting our veterans and providing access to health insurance for all Americans.

ActiveDemocracy uses a grassroots approach to recruiting citizens who have similar values to lobby the House, the Senate, and the President. We raise money and use that money to purchase television, radio, newspaper, and internet advertising in key battleground states. We do not donate money directly to any candidate but rather we endorse specific candidates for the House and the Senate. We provide the financial resources necessary to elect candidates who believe in the same things that we do.

Please visit our website , ActiveDemocracy.org to find out more about how you can help create a new Democratic majority in America. Please join our mailing list and tell any of your friends who might be interested. If you can, please contribute, any amount of money can help. Please visit our website today!

The Biggest Political Blunder of 2004...

Granted, it is early, we're only in the third month of 2004, but I believe the biggest political blunder of this year has already been committed. Perhaps, what's sad is that it wasn't even committed this year, it was committed in 2002 but the implications for 2004 are overwhelming.

I just received a dual travel cup coffeemaker today. I opened it up, I had ordered it on the Internet, and in the picture, it looked fantastic. Unfortunately, I ordered the slowest form of shipping, and everyday I would check the Fedex Tracking page to see when it would get here. Day after day, the longing set in and I knew the sooner the better. Eventually I was checking the tracking page a couple of times a day, and then today it arrived. I thought it would solve all my problems, I thought, "wow, now I"ll be able to make a quick cup of coffee, a cup of tea, whatever I want...". But alas, it was not meant to be. As I opened up the box, I noticed the coffeemaker was a bit smaller than I had expected it to be. And then, it wasn't silver, or stainless steel as the website had pictured it to be. On the box it was white, but the website had shown it to be dark black. I tore upon the box, letting the styrofoam and the airtight bubble wrap fly everywhere. I put it on top of the freezer, and admired, or rather looked disappointed at this, my newest purchase. It was black, but it now looked cheap. It had some steel, but it was not stainless. It had the two mugs just like they showed on the website. The mugs were tiny, and they along with the coffeemaker looked brittle. I expected high end technology, but the parts were obviously inferior. Along with this coffeemaker came two bags of coffee and it was then I realized that I had made a mistake. I opened up the coffee, smelled it, and immediately my stomach felt a bit queasy. I knew then why I had waited so long to order this coffeemaker. I don't drink coffee. The smell makes me sick, and the texture ruins my pearl white teeth. Afterwards, I realized that not only were these things true, but that my kitchen was too small for this coffeemaker, I had nowhere to put it. So, I did what I had to do, I put it in the cupboard with the plastic utensils and retreated to my room, knowing full well that I should have known better.

In 2002, DNC Chairman, Terry McAuliffe decided to follow the 1996 Republican lead and stack the primary schedule to make it look like a 3 week James Bond movie marathon. The rationale was the same, let's keep the primaries as bloodless as possible and lets rally around a nominee. Oftentimes, in haste, we make decisions that perhaps in retrospect, given time to think, we would not have made. Now, the Democrats are left wondering how they will keep people interested in their nominee. The question becomes, how will they keep the discourse going? How will they keep the free media interested? Unfortunately, the Democrats don't have the money to flood the paid media. Kerry had $1.2 Million cash on hand as of the last financial statement with $6.4 Million in debt. The President was sitting with $105 Million, no debt, and another $5 Million raised in California a day or two ago. As the President's new televion advertisements hit the airwaves, I think buyer's remorse amongst the Democrats is about to set in.

Screwing with Kerry's Record

The Slate just posted an excellent piece on how the GOP is trying to screw with John Kerry's voting record. I'm not talking about their attacks on his patriotism, but rather that they are just trying to make shit up. The latest analysis by slate, which is brilliant, talks about what the Republicans say Kerry voted for as opposed to the facts.

As the article so plainly points out, Kerry did not vote to reduce intelligence spending, or vote to reduce defense spending in general. In fact, the opposite is the case. Kerry voted several times to actually repeal any mandatory cuts in defense spending and oftentimes made sure that the Republicans(of all people) did not cut national defense spending. The times where he did vote to cut defense spending, the majority of the Senate was on his side.

As Slate points out, Kerry voted for reductions which were suggested by George Bush the elder and by Dick Cheney. This is another classic case of the right wing trying to have it both ways and purposely misleading the public about the record of an elected official. Everyone remembers the famous "seaweed" ad which they ran against Paul Wellstone in which they criticized him for voting for a bill which would spend $800,000 researching seaweed and its benefits. Of course, the GOP failed to mention that this was a large appropriations bill which had as its total budget several hundred billion dollars. They also failed to mention that then chairman of the RNCC, Bill Frist, also voted for the bill, along with 82 other senators. This is the game of politics, tough as it comes, plenty of strings, but no boundaries.

The Seven State Breakdown

Many months ago, Arpan and I had a discussion about John Edwards, and at the time, we both agreed he was finished. A few weeks ago, we had a discussion about John Kerry and we agreed he was finished. For the most part, we agreed that Howard Dean had won the nomination although I held several reservations and as indicated in my article, Kick The Tires and Light the Fires. I believed at that point, now this was only a few weeks ago, and still believe now, that Howard Dean is done. Kerry has surprised everyone including me and it seems he's added another twist to this massive LSAT logic game. So it comes down to what I believe to be a three candidate race between Senator John Kerry, General Wesley Clark, and Senator John Edwards. Let's take a look at some of the states which will vote on February 3rd.

Missouri

I think Dick Gephardt will endorse John Kerry tomorrow, or rather, later today, thats just my instinct, and I think he will endorse someone before February 3rd, if its not Kerry, it will be Edwards, just because Edwards is closest to Gephardt on the issues, like his opposition to NAFTA. However, Gephardt may calculate politically that it is best for him to endorse Kerry since right now it looks like Kerry will glide to the nomination. If Kerry doesn't get the nomination, he will be the first candidate since 1952 to win Iowa and New Hampshire while still losing the nomination. I think Kerry will take New Hampshire, I don't think Dean will even fight much for it. One of the things which I think the news media does not understand is that there are only two candidates in this race with a national operation. Those two are Howard Dean and John Kerry. Wes Clark is just now building up his operations and he has the money to do so. The media has said that Clark is gone, but I think they are wrong just like they were wrong about Kerry and Edwards. Clark raised $10 Million last quarter, and another $2 Million in the last 2 weeks, he's raising $150,000 a day online which is amazing and on top of it all, he will be getting matching funds checks. He's in it for the long haul. I think Edwards finishes 2nd or third in Missouri, and Clark will be neck and neck with him. Dean claims to have an operation in Missouri but I think he's toast. The amount of money he's raising online is down drastically and his staff has stopped setting deadlines for their fundraising goals. Also, the average donation has stumbled to $55 per person while Clark is cruising at around $120 per person. Later, I'll write a post about the rise and fall of Howard Dean which will explain just how Dean got to the top and so quickly fell to the bottom. I think analysis of his campaign is essential to understanding the most innovative and flawed campaign in recent political history. Dean does not finish top three in Missouri, he dropped the ball in Iowa and New Hampshire. Contrary to popular opinion, I don't think it was his well publicized screwups which did, I think it was a problem with his campaign but more to come on that later.

South Carolina

Edwards will take South Carolina, and Clark and Kerry will duke it out for second place. Kerry will be up in the polls riding the wave of success but its not going to allow him to win. Watch for a big stumble for Kerry if the polls show him beating Edwards in a couple of days but on election day they may show an Edwards victory. That will create some real expectation problems for John Kerry. The biggest problem he has is that he must now manage expectations. He has at least three other candidates with a ton of money that can attack him and all of those candidates with the exception of Howard Dean are under very little pressure. Kerry is like the pitcher in the 5th inning of the World Series, he's had a game of ups and downs but right now is cruising and there's somoone ready to relieve him at any moment should he screwup. Dean will not compete significantly in South Carolina. I think Kerry will make the crucial mistake of trying to blow John Edwards out of the water here in South Carolina. If he does that, he will use up a ton of money on a fight that he does not yet need to fight. While he may be able to beat Edwards, he will do so at the expense of significant funds and political capital, this could create problems for him in March. The best advice for Kerry is right now to aim to win 4 states with South Carolina not being one of them. He needs to save his energy and his money for the bigger delegate states. This race will be won on delegates, not momentum, there are too many candidates for one candidate to have true momentum because the media darling changes on a weekly basis. Let Edwards have South Carolina, he is expected to win there anyhow, let Edwards and General Clark duke it out for first, Kerry needs to use his strategy of Iowa, which was to let Dick Gephardt and Dean fight over first, and then try and pull in a quick sneak to second or a strong third.

North Dakota
Dean wins North Dakota, he had 900 people show up in a state which had I think 2,000 people vote in the 2000 primary. However, it might be interesting if Clark or Kerry can make some serious headway here. I doubt anyone will be spending money here, this state pretty much belongs to Dean and has very few delegates anyway. This may be the highlight of the Dean campaign and maybe even the only primary state they win, well they should win Vermont, but other than that this may be his only one. I think Dean will just let his money do the talking, but I think Iowa has shown that Dean just can't win even if he outspends every other candidate!

Arizona

Its funny but I actually think Joe Lieberman can win this state. I am one of the few who think Lieberman should not drop out. I've heard him speak many times, and while I do think he's really just a moderate Republican, I also agree with him when I say that I don't think that is always a bad thing. At least Lieberman is fiscally responsible and he's consistently standing up for what he believes in. His consistency is amazing and I think if he focuses on this state, he could pull out a victory. However, I think this is another state which Kerry will take just on his frontrunner status. I think Dean comes in third in this state and General Clark comes in 2nd. I don't know where Edwards will appear on this map if at all. I don't know about the Veteran population of Arizona but I do think that they will vote overwhelmingly for Kerry and Clark. I'm not too familiar with Arizona, so this is more instinct than analysis, but I think if Dean should choose this state to fight and if he chooses to spend a ton of money here, he will help setup a Kerry victory. What Kerry needs right now is for the other candidates to challenge each other, and the point is that if Dean dedicates a lot of money to Arizona, General Clark will do the same. Kerry needs to be able to come out the big victor in terms of money left in the bank as well. Dean's goal on the other hand is to defeat Kerry by coming in 2nd in a ton of primaries and gaining delegates while the other candidates limit the number of first place finishes Kerry can achieve. I think Dean makes a fatal flaw by visiting Michigan this week. I think he's repeating his past mistakes when he tried to get ahead in the polls nationally to secure a victory in Iowa and New Hampshire, Dean just by getting at the top of the polls in Michigan today, that does not mean anything for him a month for now. He thought that by getting at the top of the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire that he was guaranteed victory, that was wrong then, and this strategy is wrong now. This is an ongoing education for me because this is the first primary contest that I have ever been involved with, on this level anyway. Before I was too young to pay attention to politics!

New Mexico
Clark takes it, Dean comes in a close second. Dean was at one point assured victory in this state but I think those days are long gone. He has to fight for every vote he can get, and right now, his campaign operation is simply subpar. He made a huge mistake bypassing public financing and I think it is showing right now. If things just go completely wrong, I think Kerry comes in 2nd, Edwards third. Will Bill Richardson make an endorsement? I don't know, but some say he is a prime candidate for President in 2008. He's the only Hispanic Governor in America and Dean is the only Spanish speaking candidate. He may break out the Spanish in New Mexico but right now, I think the Dean campaign is going to let the negatitivity run and have a fair showing and will save their money for Super Tuesday in March. That would be the smart thing for them to do. However, they may go for the all or nothing strategy, I think it would be foolish as Dean can have his grassroots help him win a primary or two and come in close 2nds and thirds in other states. If Dean still wants this nomination, he has to take a month off to regroup and then come back in late February with a true comeback, with more money, with a new image, and with a new message, most importantly. Without all of these things, he is toast.

Oklahoma
Clark takes it, with Kerry and Edwards fighting for second. I think Dean does not even place in this state. I have no idea whats going to happen here, but in my mind, Dean is going to either fight over Arizona, Delaware and New Mexico or he's going to go for an all out assault, either way he doesn't make the cut in Oklahoma. In a state like Oklahoma, I think this becomes a battle between Clark and Edwards. If Kerry doesn't try to destroy Edwards himself and instead does the smart thing, he may find Clark and Edwards just destroying each other as this is the beginning of the Southern states.

Delaware
I think Delaware will give significant juice to Joe Lieberman, just because he is so pro-business, this is his strong point and as a moderate democrat/republican, he's going to win this state. I think Kerry will come in second and Dean third. Delaware is going to be an interesting battle, a small number of delegates but does this give Lieberman the juice he needs? I don't know, I'm a bit unsure myself.

So at the end of this onslaught, this 7 state series, how will it end up? Well, I think Joe Lieberman will drop out. If he does, then the big winners are General Clark and Senator Kerry. Should Lieberman stay in as a result of his strong showing, the big winners are John Kerry and John Edwards. If Lieberman has a strong showing, this spells doom for Clark simply because he is likely to lose a lot of independents and centrists to Lieberman. I think Howard Dean, whether he goes for a full assault, or waits till March, he comes out a big loser either way. For his sake, I hope he wagers little on February third, and saves his money and his energy for late February/early March. The biggest winner in any scenario is John Kerry. However, Kerry desperately needs to fine tune and shift his message. The "remove the special interests" rhetoric is about to expire, just as Dean's "i was against the war" propaganda expired a couple of weeks before Iowa. If Kerry does not change up his stump speech, he could be in for trouble. I think right now, the person who is most on message is John Edwards, if he can create the campaign organization on the fly, then he has a real good shot at being the nominee. Money is holding him back just a little bit, but I think more so is his organization. He has to do real well in South Carolina and he has to find another state which he can win. A ton of close 2nds will be good for him too. I think right now, there is enough room in the race for three candidates and that is where we stand today, however, I think by February third, our fringe candidates which now include Howard Dean will be much less visible, which will at that time allow the men in this race to fight it out.

Ahhh, this is going to be fun...